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Fethiyespor vs Güzide Gebzespor — League #205 2026

Fethiyespor
Fethiyespor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
12/12/2025League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 15Fethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fethiyespor27%
×Draw32%
Güzide Gebzespor41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fethiyespor
0.81
Güzide Gebzespor
1.06

Güzide Gebzespor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fethiyespor
0.33
Güzide Gebzespor
1.11

allows per match

Fethiyespor
1.00
Güzide Gebzespor
1.29

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par
Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw
59%
Fethiyespor or Güzide Gebzespor
68%
Draw or Güzide Gebzespor
73%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+
9%
Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals
56%
Fethiyespor 2+ goals
19%
Fethiyespor 3+ goals
5%
Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
65%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
29%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)
40%
Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 0.33 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + Fethiyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fethiyespor scores more
27%
level
32%
Güzide Gebzespor scores more
41%

Güzide Gebzespor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Fethiyespor 0–0 Güzide Gebzespor

Fethiyespor and Güzide Gebzespor drew 0-0 in League #205 on December 12, 2025.

The match was played at Fethiye İlçe Stadyumu in Fethiye.