Güzide Gebzespor 1–0 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Güzide Gebzespor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

D. Ozdemir 90+2'

3/15/2026

League #205 · Kırmızı - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Güzide Gebzespor39%

×Draw24%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Güzide GebzesporExpected goals in this match68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Güzide Gebzespor

1.52

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

1.71

creates per match

2.00

0.92

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Güzide Gebzespor

1.71

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

2.00

allows per match

Güzide Gebzespor

0.92

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güzide Gebzespor ↓

68 Aksaray Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Güzide Gebzespor or draw

64%

Güzide Gebzespor or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

76%

Draw or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

61%

Winning margin

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+

19%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals

78%

Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals

45%

Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals

20%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals

77%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals

43%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)

52%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güzide Gebzespor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.71 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 2.00 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Güzide Gebzespor scores more

39%

level

24%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more

36%

Güzide Gebzespor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

D. Ozdemir↳ B. Altintas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff