68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3–0 Güzide Gebzespor

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Güzide Gebzespor

U. Can 90+3'

I. Karakas 61', 28'

11/2/2025

League #205 · Kırmızı - 11Dagilgan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor55%

×Draw26%

Güzide Gebzespor18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

68 Aksaray BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchGüzide Gebzespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.72

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.48

Güzide Gebzespor

0.72

68 Aksaray Belediyespor creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

1.11

0.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.67

Güzide Gebzespor

1.11

allows per match

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

0.33

Güzide Gebzespor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

68 Aksaray Belediyespor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

68 Aksaray Belediyespor or draw

82%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor or Güzide Gebzespor

74%

Draw or Güzide Gebzespor

45%

Winning margin

68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+

29%

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals

77%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals

43%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals

19%

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals

51%

Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals

16%

Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)

75%

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

68 Aksaray Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more

55%

level

26%

Güzide Gebzespor scores more

18%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "68 Aksaray Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

I. Karakas↳ O. Dogan

61'

I. Karakas

90+3'

U. Can↳ B. Karahan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff