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Gute vs Dalkurd FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gute
Gute
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
8/21/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGutavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gute22%
×Draw18%
Dalkurd FF59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gute
1.61
Dalkurd FF
2.66

Dalkurd FF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gute
1.00
Dalkurd FF
1.56

allows per match

Gute
3.75
Dalkurd FF
2.22

finishing

Gute+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gute ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Gute or draw
41%
Gute or Dalkurd FF
82%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
78%

Winning margin

Gute wins by 2+
10%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Gute 1+ goals
80%
Gute 2+ goals
48%
Gute 3+ goals
22%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
93%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
74%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Gute (draw refunded)
27%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gute at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gute attack 1.00 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dalkurd FF attack 1.56 + Gute defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gute scores more
22%
level
18%
Dalkurd FF scores more
59%

Dalkurd FF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Gute 2–4 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Gute 4-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Gutavallen in Gotland.