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Dalkurd FF vs Gute — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Gute
Gute
5/12/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 7Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalkurd FF34%
×Draw22%
Gute44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.65
Gute
1.91

Gute creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.23
Gute
1.44

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.38
Gute
2.07

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Gute+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Gute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
56%
Dalkurd FF or Gute
78%
Draw or Gute
66%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
17%
Gute wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
81%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
49%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
23%
Gute 1+ goals
85%
Gute 2+ goals
57%
Gute 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
43%
Gute (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Gute away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.07 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Gute defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gute attack 1.44 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
34%
level
22%
Gute scores more
44%

Gute at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Dalkurd FF 1–5 Gute

Gute beat Dalkurd FF 5-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Lötens IP in Uppsala.