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Gusii vs Dandora Love — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
2 – 0
Dandora Love
Dandora Love
6/22/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gusii58%
×Draw22%
Dandora Love20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.97
Dandora Love
1.06

Gusii creates 86% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Dandora Love
1.00

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Dandora Love
2.47

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Dandora Love →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
80%
Gusii or Dandora Love
78%
Draw or Dandora Love
42%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
35%
Dandora Love wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
86%
Gusii 2+ goals
58%
Gusii 3+ goals
31%
Dandora Love 1+ goals
65%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
29%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
74%
Dandora Love (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gusii scores more
58%
level
22%
Dandora Love scores more
20%

Gusii at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Gusii 2–0 Dandora Love

Gusii beat Dandora Love 2-0 in Super League on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.