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Dandora Love vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
2 – 1
Gusii
Gusii
3/2/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love40%
×Draw24%
Gusii37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.63
Gusii
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
63%
Dandora Love or Gusii
76%
Draw or Gusii
60%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
20%
Gusii wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
80%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
48%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
22%
Gusii 1+ goals
79%
Gusii 2+ goals
46%
Gusii 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
52%
Gusii (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gusii attack 0.72 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dandora Love scores more
40%
level
24%
Gusii scores more
37%

Dandora Love at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dandora Love will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dandora Love 2–1 Gusii

Dandora Love beat Gusii 2-1 in Super League on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.