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Gusii vs APS Bomet — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
0 – 1
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
5/21/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gusii37%
×Draw30%
APS Bomet33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.11
APS Bomet
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 39 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
APS Bomet
0.92

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
APS Bomet
0.77

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
67%
Gusii or APS Bomet
70%
Draw or APS Bomet
63%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
15%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
67%
Gusii 2+ goals
30%
Gusii 3+ goals
10%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
64%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
27%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
53%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + APS Bomet defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

APS Bomet attack 0.92 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gusii scores more
37%
level
30%
APS Bomet scores more
33%

Gusii at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gusii vs APS Bomet

APS Bomet beat Gusii 1-0 in Super League on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.