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APS Bomet vs Gusii — Super League 2018

APS Bomet
APS Bomet
CANC
12:00
Gusii
Gusii
2/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

APS Bomet60%
×Draw25%
Gusii15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APS Bomet
1.58
Gusii
0.65

APS Bomet creates 143% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

creates per match

APS Bomet
1.47
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

APS Bomet
0.58
Gusii
1.69

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw
85%
APS Bomet or Gusii
75%
Draw or Gusii
40%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+
32%
Gusii wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals
79%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
47%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
21%
Gusii 1+ goals
48%
Gusii 2+ goals
14%
Gusii 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)
80%
Gusii (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 38 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 1.47 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gusii attack 0.72 + APS Bomet defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

APS Bomet scores more
60%
level
25%
Gusii scores more
15%

APS Bomet at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: APS Bomet host Gusii

February 8, 2023: APS Bomet take on Gusii in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

APS Bomet host Gusii at Bomet Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.