Gurten 0–0 WSPG Wels: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

WSPG Wels

9/8/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 7Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gurten43%

×Draw25%

WSPG Wels32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchWSPG Wels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Gurten

1.52

WSPG Wels

1.27

Gurten creates 20% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 30 away

1.74

creates per match

1.73

0.82

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Gurten

1.74

WSPG Wels

1.73

allows per match

Gurten

0.82

WSPG Wels

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

WSPG Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

68%

Gurten or WSPG Wels

75%

Draw or WSPG Wels

57%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

21%

WSPG Wels wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

78%

Gurten 2+ goals

45%

Gurten 3+ goals

20%

WSPG Wels 1+ goals

72%

WSPG Wels 2+ goals

36%

WSPG Wels 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

58%

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gurten scores more

43%

level

25%

WSPG Wels scores more

32%

Gurten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff