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Gurten vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
10/22/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Gurten57%
×Draw22%
Union Vöcklamarkt21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.92
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.07

Gurten creates 79% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.72
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

Gurten
0.88
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
79%
Gurten or Union Vöcklamarkt
78%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
43%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
33%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
85%
Gurten 2+ goals
57%
Gurten 3+ goals
30%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
66%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
29%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
73%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.88 · 114 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.72 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.92

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + Gurten defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gurten scores more
57%
level
22%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
21%

Gurten at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 0–1 Union Vöcklamarkt

Union Vöcklamarkt beat Gurten 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.