Gurten 2–2 Grazer AK: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

2 – 2

Grazer AK

10/6/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 11Park21-Arena Gurten (Gurten)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gurten35%

×Draw26%

Grazer AK39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchGrazer AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.39

Gurten

1.30

Grazer AK

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

1.75

creates per match

1.93

0.85

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Gurten

1.75

Grazer AK

1.93

allows per match

Gurten

0.85

Grazer AK

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Grazer AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

61%

Gurten or Grazer AK

74%

Draw or Grazer AK

65%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

15%

Grazer AK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

73%

Gurten 2+ goals

37%

Gurten 3+ goals

14%

Grazer AK 1+ goals

75%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

40%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

47%

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.75 + Grazer AK defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Grazer AK attack 1.93 + Gurten defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gurten scores more

35%

level

26%

Grazer AK scores more

39%

Grazer AK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff