Grazer AK 1–0 Gurten: Result & Stats

Grazer AK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gurten

5/14/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 26Sportzentrum Graz-Weinzödl (Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grazer AK54%

×Draw22%

Gurten24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grazer AKExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.22

Grazer AK

1.95

Gurten

1.22

Grazer AK creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

2.73

creates per match

1.56

0.87

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Grazer AK

2.73

Gurten

1.56

allows per match

Grazer AK

0.87

Gurten

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw

76%

Grazer AK or Gurten

78%

Draw or Gurten

46%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+

31%

Gurten wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals

86%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

58%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

31%

Gurten 1+ goals

70%

Gurten 2+ goals

34%

Gurten 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

70%

Gurten (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 2.73 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gurten attack 1.56 + Grazer AK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Grazer AK scores more

54%

level

22%

Gurten scores more

24%

Grazer AK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff