Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gurten vs FC BW Linz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gurten
Gurten
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
1/27/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gurten43%
×Draw19%
FC BW Linz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.60
FC BW Linz
2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gurten
4.00
FC BW Linz
2.13

allows per match

Gurten
2.75
FC BW Linz
1.20

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
62%
Gurten or FC BW Linz
81%
Draw or FC BW Linz
57%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
26%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
92%
Gurten 2+ goals
73%
Gurten 3+ goals
47%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
91%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
70%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
53%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 4.00 + FC BW Linz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

FC BW Linz attack 2.13 + Gurten defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gurten scores more
43%
level
19%
FC BW Linz scores more
38%

Gurten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Gurten 1–6 FC BW Linz

FC BW Linz beat Gurten 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.