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FC BW Linz vs Gurten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
FT
2 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Verbandsanlage des OÖFV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC BW Linz59%
×Draw22%
Gurten19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC BW Linz
1.96
Gurten
1.02

FC BW Linz creates 92% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC BW Linz
2.58
Gurten
1.13

allows per match

FC BW Linz
0.92
Gurten
1.33

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw
81%
FC BW Linz or Gurten
78%
Draw or Gurten
41%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+
35%
Gurten wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals
86%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
58%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
31%
Gurten 1+ goals
64%
Gurten 2+ goals
27%
Gurten 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
75%
Gurten (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 2.58 + Gurten defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gurten attack 1.13 + FC BW Linz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC BW Linz scores more
59%
level
22%
Gurten scores more
19%

FC BW Linz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC BW Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC BW Linz vs Gurten

FC BW Linz beat Gurten 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Verbandsanlage des OÖFV in Linz.