Guria 0–1 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Guria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Samtredia

M. Megreladze 14'

3/8/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 2Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze (Lanchkhuti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guria37%

×Draw26%

Samtredia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuriaExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.31

Guria

1.32

Samtredia

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

1.28

creates per match

1.11

1.50

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Guria

1.28

Samtredia

1.11

allows per match

Guria

1.50

Samtredia

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guria+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guria or draw

63%

Guria or Samtredia

74%

Draw or Samtredia

63%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+

17%

Samtredia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals

73%

Guria 2+ goals

38%

Guria 3+ goals

15%

Samtredia 1+ goals

73%

Samtredia 2+ goals

38%

Samtredia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)

50%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 1.28 + Samtredia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Samtredia attack 1.11 + Guria defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guria scores more

37%

level

26%

Samtredia scores more

37%

Guria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Megreladze

57'

Z. Khabeishvili← M. Megreladze

66'

V. Olkhovi← G. Samushia

76'

S. Bakhia← D. Skotarenko

90'

A. Ninua← G. Gogua

Guria

Samtredia

19

24

2

16

7

▼

Gogua

23

Dobrovols

33

▼

10

14

20

29

⚽

▼

29

21

5

7

1

8

11

4

9

10

30

▼

Skotarenk

Manager: T. Pataraia

76'▲S. Bakhia←▼D. Skotarenko

Guria substitutes

22Bakhia3Kurshavishvili6Malazonia13Ebralidze17Tabidze27Shengelia33Tebidze

Manager: K. Katcharava

57'▲Z. Khabeishvili←▼M. Megreladze

66'▲V. Olkhovi←▼G. Samushia

90'▲A. Ninua←▼G. Gogua

Samtredia substitutes

9Khabeishvili18Olkhovi17Ninua15Nadiradze21Tcheishvili22Giorbelidze25Kvilitaia