Guria 0–2 Samtredia: Result & Stats | Erovnuli Liga

Guria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Samtredia

5/14/2016

Erovnuli Liga · Regular SeasonStadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guria48%

×Draw29%

Samtredia24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuriaExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

Guria

1.29

Samtredia

0.82

Guria creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 66 away

0.60

creates per match

1.05

0.60

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Guria

0.60

Samtredia

1.05

allows per match

Guria

0.60

Samtredia

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guria+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guria or draw

76%

Guria or Samtredia

71%

Draw or Samtredia

52%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+

22%

Samtredia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals

72%

Guria 2+ goals

37%

Guria 3+ goals

14%

Samtredia 1+ goals

56%

Samtredia 2+ goals

20%

Samtredia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)

67%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 0.60 + Samtredia defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Samtredia attack 1.05 + Guria defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guria scores more

48%

level

29%

Samtredia scores more

24%

Guria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff