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Gundelfingen vs 1860 München II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
1860 München II
1860 München II
8/9/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 5Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gundelfingen39%
×Draw25%
1860 München II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gundelfingen
1.51
1860 München II
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gundelfingen
1.70
1860 München II
1.67

allows per match

Gundelfingen
1.20
1860 München II
1.32

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par
1860 München II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

1860 München II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw
64%
Gundelfingen or 1860 München II
75%
Draw or 1860 München II
61%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+
19%
1860 München II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals
78%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
44%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
19%
1860 München II 1+ goals
76%
1860 München II 2+ goals
42%
1860 München II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
52%
1860 München II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

1860 München II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.70 + 1860 München II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.51

1860 München II attack 1.67 + Gundelfingen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gundelfingen scores more
39%
level
25%
1860 München II scores more
36%

Gundelfingen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Gundelfingen 2–1 1860 München II

Gundelfingen beat 1860 München II 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Schwabenstadion in Gundelfingen.