1860 München II 5–0 Gundelfingen: Result & Stats

1860 München II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gundelfingen

11/26/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 22Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

1860 München II59%

×Draw22%

Gundelfingen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München IIExpected goals in this matchGundelfingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.99

1860 München II

1.91

Gundelfingen

0.99

1860 München II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

2.27

creates per match

1.12

0.85

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

1860 München II

2.27

Gundelfingen

1.12

allows per match

1860 München II

0.85

Gundelfingen

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par

Gundelfingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Gundelfingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw

81%

1860 München II or Gundelfingen

78%

Draw or Gundelfingen

41%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+

35%

Gundelfingen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals

85%

1860 München II 2+ goals

57%

1860 München II 3+ goals

30%

Gundelfingen 1+ goals

63%

Gundelfingen 2+ goals

26%

Gundelfingen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)

75%

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Gundelfingen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Gundelfingen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.91

Gundelfingen attack 1.12 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1860 München II scores more

59%

level

22%

Gundelfingen scores more

19%

1860 München II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 München II vs Gundelfingen

1860 München II beat Gundelfingen 5-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz in München.

1860 München II vs Gundelfingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1860 München II vs Gundelfingen