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Gulf Heroes vs Fursan Hispania — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
9/11/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Hemid Altayer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gulf Heroes45%
×Draw23%
Fursan Hispania31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.76
Fursan Hispania
1.43

Gulf Heroes creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Fursan Hispania
0.81

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Fursan Hispania
2.44

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Fursan Hispania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
69%
Gulf Heroes or Fursan Hispania
77%
Draw or Fursan Hispania
55%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
24%
Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
83%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
52%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
26%
Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
76%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
42%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
59%
Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
45%
level
23%
Fursan Hispania scores more
31%

Gulf Heroes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Gulf Heroes 3–1 Fursan Hispania

Gulf Heroes beat Fursan Hispania 3-1 in Division 1 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Hemid Altayer Stadium in Dubai.