Fursan Hispania 1–2 Gulf Heroes: Result & Stats

Fursan Hispania

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gulf Heroes

1/21/2023

Division 1 · Round 18The Sevens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania27%

×Draw21%

Gulf Heroes52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fursan HispaniaExpected goals in this matchGulf Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.08

Fursan Hispania

1.44

Gulf Heroes

2.08

Gulf Heroes creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

0.81

creates per match

1.53

2.63

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Fursan Hispania

0.81

Gulf Heroes

1.53

allows per match

Fursan Hispania

2.63

Gulf Heroes

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Gulf Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw

48%

Fursan Hispania or Gulf Heroes

79%

Draw or Gulf Heroes

73%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

12%

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

76%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

42%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

18%

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals

87%

Gulf Heroes 2+ goals

61%

Gulf Heroes 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

34%

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more

27%

level

21%

Gulf Heroes scores more

52%

Gulf Heroes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff