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Gulf Heroes vs Baynounah SC — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
3/19/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gulf Heroes50%
×Draw22%
Baynounah SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.92
Baynounah SC
1.37

Gulf Heroes creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Baynounah SC
0.69

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Baynounah SC
2.75

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Baynounah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
73%
Gulf Heroes or Baynounah SC
78%
Draw or Baynounah SC
50%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
28%
Baynounah SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
85%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
57%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
30%
Baynounah SC 1+ goals
75%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
40%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
65%
Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
50%
level
22%
Baynounah SC scores more
27%

Gulf Heroes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Gulf Heroes 3–2 Baynounah SC

Gulf Heroes beat Baynounah SC 3-2 in Division 1 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.