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Baynounah SC vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
11/4/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baynounah SC32%
×Draw21%
Gulf Heroes47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baynounah SC
1.72
Gulf Heroes
2.11

Gulf Heroes creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

creates per match

Baynounah SC
1.38
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Baynounah SC
2.69
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Baynounah SC+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baynounah SC ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Baynounah SC or draw
53%
Baynounah SC or Gulf Heroes
79%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
68%

Winning margin

Baynounah SC wins by 2+
16%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Baynounah SC 1+ goals
82%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
51%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
25%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
88%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
62%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
41%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baynounah SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baynounah SC attack 1.38 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Baynounah SC defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baynounah SC scores more
32%
level
21%
Gulf Heroes scores more
47%

Gulf Heroes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baynounah SC vs Gulf Heroes

Gulf Heroes beat Baynounah SC 4-2 in Division 1 on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium in Al Jazirah Al Hamra.