Gulf Heroes 0–3 Al Urooba: Result & Stats

Gulf Heroes

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Al Urooba

9/24/2022

Division 1 · Round 3Hemid Altayer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes22%

×Draw23%

Al Urooba55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf HeroesExpected goals in this matchAl Urooba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.79

Gulf Heroes

1.04

Al Urooba

1.79

Al Urooba creates 72% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

1.08

creates per match

1.54

2.05

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Gulf Heroes

1.08

Al Urooba

1.54

allows per match

Gulf Heroes

2.05

Al Urooba

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Urooba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw

45%

Gulf Heroes or Al Urooba

77%

Draw or Al Urooba

78%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+

8%

Al Urooba wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals

65%

Gulf Heroes 2+ goals

28%

Gulf Heroes 3+ goals

9%

Al Urooba 1+ goals

83%

Al Urooba 2+ goals

53%

Al Urooba 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)

29%

Al Urooba (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more

22%

level

23%

Al Urooba scores more

55%

Al Urooba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff