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Al Urooba vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Al Urooba
Al Urooba
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
12/22/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Al Orooba Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al Urooba52%
×Draw22%
Gulf Heroes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Urooba
1.94
Gulf Heroes
1.33

Al Urooba creates 46% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Al Urooba
1.81
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Al Urooba
1.14
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw
74%
Al Urooba or Gulf Heroes
78%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
48%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+
29%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals
86%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
58%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
30%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
74%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
38%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)
66%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 72 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.81 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Al Urooba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Urooba scores more
52%
level
22%
Gulf Heroes scores more
26%

Al Urooba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Urooba 3–3 Gulf Heroes

Al Urooba and Gulf Heroes drew 3-3 in Division 1 on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Al Orooba Club / MS2 in Mirbih / Murbah.