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Gulf Heroes vs Al Ramms — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ramms
Al Ramms
5/20/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gulf Heroes41%
×Draw24%
Al Ramms35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.64
Al Ramms
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Al Ramms
0.95

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Al Ramms
2.19

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Ramms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
65%
Gulf Heroes or Al Ramms
76%
Draw or Al Ramms
59%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
21%
Al Ramms wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
81%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
49%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
23%
Al Ramms 1+ goals
78%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
44%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
54%
Al Ramms (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
41%
level
24%
Al Ramms scores more
35%

Gulf Heroes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Gulf Heroes 1–0 Al Ramms

Gulf Heroes beat Al Ramms 1-0 in Division 1 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Dhaid Stadium in Dhaid.