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Al Ramms vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Al Ramms
Al Ramms
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
10/28/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms35%
×Draw22%
Gulf Heroes43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ramms
1.65
Gulf Heroes
1.85

Gulf Heroes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 59 away

creates per match

Al Ramms
1.24
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Al Ramms
2.17
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw
57%
Al Ramms or Gulf Heroes
78%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
65%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+
17%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals
81%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
49%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
23%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
84%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
55%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)
45%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ramms scores more
35%
level
22%
Gulf Heroes scores more
43%

Gulf Heroes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ramms vs Gulf Heroes

Gulf Heroes beat Al Ramms 3-1 in Division 1 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Al Rams Stadium in Al Rams.