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Gulf Heroes vs Al Fujairah SC — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
10/21/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes27%
×Draw24%
Al Fujairah SC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.22
Al Fujairah SC
1.71

Al Fujairah SC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Fujairah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
51%
Gulf Heroes or Al Fujairah SC
76%
Draw or Al Fujairah SC
73%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
11%
Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
70%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
34%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
12%
Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
82%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
51%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
36%
Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Fujairah SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.36 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
27%
level
24%
Al Fujairah SC scores more
49%

Al Fujairah SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf Heroes vs Al Fujairah SC

Gulf Heroes and Al Fujairah SC drew 1-1 in Division 1 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Fujairah Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.