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Al Fujairah SC vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
5/24/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al Fujairah SC49%
×Draw23%
Gulf Heroes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fujairah SC
1.88
Gulf Heroes
1.40

Al Fujairah SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.68
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.26
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw
71%
Al Fujairah SC or Gulf Heroes
77%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
51%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
27%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
85%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
56%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
29%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
75%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
41%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
63%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.68 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more
49%
level
23%
Gulf Heroes scores more
29%

Al Fujairah SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fujairah SC vs Gulf Heroes

Al Fujairah SC and Gulf Heroes drew 2-2 in Division 1 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Fujairah Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.