Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guizhou Zhucheng vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Guizhou Zhucheng
Guizhou Zhucheng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
4/8/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guizhou Zhucheng57%
×Draw25%
Guangxi Lanhang18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhucheng
1.56
Guangxi Lanhang
0.74

Guizhou Zhucheng creates 111% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhucheng
1.61
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Guizhou Zhucheng
0.61
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhucheng ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhucheng or draw
82%
Guizhou Zhucheng or Guangxi Lanhang
75%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
43%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+
30%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals
79%
Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals
46%
Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals
21%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
52%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
17%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)
76%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhucheng at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.61 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guizhou Zhucheng scores more
57%
level
25%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
18%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhucheng vs Guangxi Lanhang

Guizhou Zhucheng beat Guangxi Lanhang 2-1 in League Two on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.