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Guangxi Lanhang vs Guizhou Zhucheng — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhucheng
Guizhou Zhucheng
6/22/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Dongxing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang31%
×Draw26%
Guizhou Zhucheng43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.15
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.40

Guizhou Zhucheng creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.09

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.50

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Guizhou Zhucheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
57%
Guangxi Lanhang or Guizhou Zhucheng
74%
Draw or Guizhou Zhucheng
69%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
12%
Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
68%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
32%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
11%
Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals
75%
Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals
41%
Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
42%
Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Guizhou Zhucheng away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.09 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
31%
level
26%
Guizhou Zhucheng scores more
43%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 0–1 Guizhou Zhucheng

Guizhou Zhucheng beat Guangxi Lanhang 1-0 in League Two on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Dongxing Sports Center in Dongxing.