Guizhou Zhicheng 0–3 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

10/28/2018

Super League · Round 27Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng28%

×Draw24%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.75

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.75

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

1.27

creates per match

1.84

1.67

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.84

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

51%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

76%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

72%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

12%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

72%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

36%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

14%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

83%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

52%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

28%

level

24%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

49%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff