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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
7/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC67%
×Draw18%
Guizhou Zhicheng15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.38
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.02

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 133% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
85%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Guizhou Zhicheng
82%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
33%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
45%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
91%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
68%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
42%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
64%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
82%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.38

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
67%
level
18%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
15%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Guizhou Zhicheng 4-0 in Super League on July 18, 2018.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.