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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
10/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng42%
×Draw24%
Dalian Aerbin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.56
Dalian Aerbin
1.39

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Dalian Aerbin
76%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
58%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
21%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
79%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
46%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
21%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
75%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
40%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
55%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
42%
level
24%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
34%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guizhou Zhicheng 3–0 Dalian Aerbin

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 in Super League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.