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Dalian Aerbin vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
5/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Aerbin57%
×Draw21%
Guizhou Zhicheng22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
2.04
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.20

Dalian Aerbin creates 70% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
78%
Dalian Aerbin or Guizhou Zhicheng
79%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
43%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
87%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
60%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
33%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
72%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.04

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
57%
level
21%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
22%

Dalian Aerbin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dalian Aerbin 2–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Dalian Aerbin beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-1 in Super League on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium in Dalian.