Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guizhou Zhicheng vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
11/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng39%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Lifan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.52
Chongqing Lifan
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 50 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
64%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Chongqing Lifan
76%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
61%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
19%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
78%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
45%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
20%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
77%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
43%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
52%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
39%
level
24%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
36%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Chongqing Lifan

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Chongqing Lifan 1-0 in Super League on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.