Chongqing Lifan 3–4 Guizhou Zhicheng

Chongqing Lifan

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Guizhou Zhicheng

8/1/2018

Super League · Round 15Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chongqing Lifan56%

×Draw22%

Guizhou Zhicheng22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chongqing LifanExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

Chongqing Lifan

2.00

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.17

Chongqing Lifan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.34

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.26

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.00

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.34

Guizhou Zhicheng

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw

78%

Chongqing Lifan or Guizhou Zhicheng

78%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

44%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

33%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

86%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

59%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

32%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

69%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

33%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

72%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.00

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more

56%

level

22%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

22%

Chongqing Lifan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff