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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Changchun Yatai — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
3/16/2019League OneLeague One · Round 2Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng32%
×Draw25%
Changchun Yatai43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.31
Changchun Yatai
1.54

Changchun Yatai creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 29 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Changchun Yatai
1.90

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Changchun Yatai
1.31

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
57%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Changchun Yatai
75%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
68%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
14%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
73%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
38%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
14%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
79%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
45%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
43%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
32%
level
25%
Changchun Yatai scores more
43%

Changchun Yatai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Changchun Yatai

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 in League One on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.