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Changchun Yatai vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
7/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 17Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Changchun Yatai46%
×Draw26%
Guizhou Zhicheng28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.46
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.09

Changchun Yatai creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.55
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.14
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
72%
Changchun Yatai or Guizhou Zhicheng
74%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
54%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
22%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
77%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
43%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
18%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
30%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
62%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.55 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
46%
level
26%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
28%

Changchun Yatai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changchun Yatai vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Changchun Yatai beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-1 in League One on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.