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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
9/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng32%
×Draw24%
Beijing Guoan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.34
Beijing Guoan
1.63

Beijing Guoan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
56%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Beijing Guoan
76%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
68%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
14%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
15%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
80%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
48%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
42%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
32%
level
24%
Beijing Guoan scores more
44%

Beijing Guoan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Guoan

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Beijing Guoan 3-2 in Super League on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.