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Beijing Guoan vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
4/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beijing Guoan68%
×Draw18%
Guizhou Zhicheng15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.49
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.08

Beijing Guoan creates 131% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
85%
Beijing Guoan or Guizhou Zhicheng
82%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
32%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
46%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
92%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
71%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
45%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
29%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
82%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.49

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
68%
level
18%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
15%

Beijing Guoan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Beijing Guoan beat Guizhou Zhicheng 4-3 in Super League on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.