Guingamp 3–1 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Guingamp

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

R. Ghrieb 90+2' (pen)

S. Nair 88'

J. Siwe 65'

M. Bassouamina 17'

3/7/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Guingamp41%

×Draw28%

Clermont Foot32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.09

Guingamp

1.28

Clermont Foot

1.09

Guingamp creates 17% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 98 away

1.40

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

68%

Guingamp or Clermont Foot

72%

Draw or Clermont Foot

59%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

18%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

72%

Guingamp 2+ goals

37%

Guingamp 3+ goals

14%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

66%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

30%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

56%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guingamp scores more

41%

level

28%

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

Guingamp at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. Nair

Guingamp · D

8.3

Match Events

17'

M. Bassouamina↳ M. Douane

24'

Allan Ackra

48'

Baïla Diallo

53'

Tidyane Diagouraga

63'

Junior Armando Mendes← H. Picard

63'

B. Labeau← A. Hemia

63'

R. Ghrieb← T. Le Bris

65'

J. Siwe↳ B. Labeau

71'

Donatien Gomis

72'

F. Diédhiou← H. Saivet

72'

J. Isala← C. Konaté

74'

M. Baaloudj← M. Bassouamina

77'

L. Phiri← D. Louiserre

81'

Rayan Ghrieb

82'

M. Inchaud← A. Ackra

82'

Y. Armougom← M. Douane

88'

S. Nair↳ A. Sissoko

90+1'

Josue Isala

90+6'

M. Riou← J. Siwe

90+2'

R. GhriebPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampClermont

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots4

10Corners0

14Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots4

12On Target2

3Off Target1

3Blocked1

16Inside Box2

2Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

570Total Passes317

493Accurate Passes240

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4