Clermont Foot 4–1 Guingamp: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Guingamp

O. Diop 56', 15'

F. Diédhiou 53'

Y. Magnin 9'

A. Sagna 88'

10/5/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot40%

×Draw27%

Guingamp33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.14

Clermont Foot

1.30

Guingamp

1.14

Clermont Foot creates 14% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 129 away

1.31

creates per match

1.25

1.03

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

67%

Clermont Foot or Guingamp

73%

Draw or Guingamp

60%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

18%

Guingamp wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

73%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

37%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Guingamp 1+ goals

68%

Guingamp 2+ goals

32%

Guingamp 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

55%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

40%

level

27%

Guingamp scores more

33%

Clermont Foot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Diédhiou

Clermont Foot · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

15'

23'

25'

25'

39'

53'

F. Diédhiou↳ H. Keïta

56'

O. Diop↳ F. Diédhiou

63'

T. Luvambo← B. Labeau

63'

M. Riou← S. Nair

67'

Jacques Siwe

68'

Y. Diaby← F. Diédhiou

68'

J. Gastien← H. Saivet

70'

A. Sagna← R. Ghrieb

70'

S. Guendouz← H. Picard

72'

Ousmane Diop

74'

L. Vallier← L. Maronnier

77'

M. Bassouamina← M. Baaloudj

77'

88'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontGuingamp

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots22

3Corners10

7Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots22

6On Target7

3Off Target11

0Blocked4

8Inside Box16

1Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

316Total Passes589

256Accurate Passes524

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3