Guingamp 1–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajaccio

10/29/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Guingamp44%

×Draw28%

Ajaccio28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.97

Guingamp

1.30

Ajaccio

0.97

Guingamp creates 34% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 107 away

1.39

creates per match

0.75

1.19

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Guingamp

1.39

Ajaccio

0.75

allows per match

Guingamp

1.19

Ajaccio

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

72%

Guingamp or Ajaccio

72%

Draw or Ajaccio

56%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

20%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

73%

Guingamp 2+ goals

37%

Guingamp 3+ goals

14%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

62%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

25%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

61%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guingamp scores more

44%

level

28%

Ajaccio scores more

28%

Guingamp at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff