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Ajaccio vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
2/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Ajaccio40%
×Draw29%
Guingamp31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.21
Guingamp
1.02

Ajaccio creates 19% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 125 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.17
Guingamp
1.24

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.81
Guingamp
1.26

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
69%
Ajaccio or Guingamp
71%
Draw or Guingamp
60%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
17%
Guingamp wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
70%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
34%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
12%
Guingamp 1+ goals
64%
Guingamp 2+ goals
27%
Guingamp 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
57%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 107 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.17 + Guingamp defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guingamp attack 1.24 + Ajaccio defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajaccio scores more
40%
level
29%
Guingamp scores more
31%

Ajaccio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajaccio vs Guingamp

Ajaccio beat Guingamp 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade François Coty in Ajaccio.