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Guinea vs Gambia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Guinea
Guinea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gambia
Gambiaadvanced
1/24/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guinea43%
×Draw34%
Gambia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.00
Gambia
0.66

Guinea creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.00
Gambia
0.57

allows per match

Guinea
0.75
Gambia
1.00

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Gambia+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Gambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
76%
Guinea or Gambia
66%
Draw or Gambia
57%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
17%
Gambia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
63%
Guinea 2+ goals
26%
Guinea 3+ goals
8%
Gambia 1+ goals
48%
Gambia 2+ goals
14%
Gambia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
64%
Gambia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Gambia away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.00 + Gambia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Gambia attack 0.57 + Guinea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guinea scores more
43%
level
34%
Gambia scores more
24%

Guinea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Guinea 0–1 Gambia

Gambia beat Guinea 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.