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Gambia vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Gambia
Gambia
CANC
12:00
Guinea
Guinea
10/13/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Estádio Municipal de Albufeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gambia73%
×Draw17%
Guinea10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gambia
2.30
Guinea
0.70

Gambia creates 229% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gambia
3.33
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Gambia
0.67
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Gambia+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gambia ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gambia or draw
90%
Gambia or Guinea
83%
Draw or Guinea
27%

Winning margin

Gambia wins by 2+
49%
Guinea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gambia 1+ goals
90%
Gambia 2+ goals
67%
Gambia 3+ goals
40%
Guinea 1+ goals
50%
Guinea 2+ goals
16%
Guinea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gambia (draw refunded)
88%
Guinea (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gambia at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gambia attack 3.33 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.30

Guinea attack 0.73 + Gambia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gambia scores more
73%
level
17%
Guinea scores more
10%

Gambia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gambia face Guinea (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Gambia hosting Guinea. Match starts October 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gambia host Guinea at Estádio Municipal de Albufeira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.