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Guinea vs Central African Republic — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Guinea
Guinea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central African Republic
Central African Republic
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade du 28 Septembre (Conakry)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guinea60%
×Draw24%
Central African Republic16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.67
Central African Republic
0.71

Guinea creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.00
Central African Republic
0.67

allows per match

Guinea
0.75
Central African Republic
2.33

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Central African Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Central African Republic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
84%
Guinea or Central African Republic
76%
Draw or Central African Republic
40%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
34%
Central African Republic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
81%
Guinea 2+ goals
50%
Guinea 3+ goals
23%
Central African Republic 1+ goals
51%
Central African Republic 2+ goals
16%
Central African Republic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
79%
Central African Republic (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Central African Republic away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.00 + Central African Republic defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Central African Republic attack 0.67 + Guinea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guinea scores more
60%
level
24%
Central African Republic scores more
16%

Guinea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Guinea 1–0 Central African Republic

Guinea beat Central African Republic 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 28 Septembre (Conakry).