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Central African Republic vs Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Central African Republic
Central African Republic
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guinea
Guinea
3/24/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Stade Barthélemy Boganda (Bangui)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Central African Republic41%
×Draw35%
Guinea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central African Republic
0.93
Guinea
0.62

Central African Republic creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Central African Republic
0.67
Guinea
0.91

allows per match

Central African Republic
0.33
Guinea
1.18

finishing

Central African Republic+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central African Republic ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Central African Republic or draw
77%
Central African Republic or Guinea
65%
Draw or Guinea
59%

Winning margin

Central African Republic wins by 2+
15%
Guinea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Central African Republic 1+ goals
61%
Central African Republic 2+ goals
24%
Central African Republic 3+ goals
7%
Guinea 1+ goals
46%
Guinea 2+ goals
13%
Guinea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Central African Republic (draw refunded)
64%
Guinea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central African Republic at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central African Republic attack 0.67 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Guinea attack 0.91 + Central African Republic defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central African Republic scores more
41%
level
35%
Guinea scores more
23%

Central African Republic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central African Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central African Republic vs Guinea

Central African Republic and Guinea drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Barthélemy Boganda (Bangui).