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Guinea-Bissau vs Gabon — Friendlies 2026

Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
FT
1 – 3
Gabon
Gabon
11/17/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Atilla Vehbi Konuk Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guinea-Bissau42%
×Draw24%
Gabon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea-Bissau
1.60
Gabon
1.40

Guinea-Bissau creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guinea-Bissau
1.80
Gabon
1.60

allows per match

Guinea-Bissau
1.20
Gabon
1.40

finishing

Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par
Gabon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea-Bissau ↓

Gabon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guinea-Bissau or draw
66%
Guinea-Bissau or Gabon
76%
Draw or Gabon
58%

Winning margin

Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+
21%
Gabon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals
80%
Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals
47%
Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals
22%
Gabon 1+ goals
75%
Gabon 2+ goals
41%
Gabon 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)
56%
Gabon (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea-Bissau at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Gabon away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea-Bissau attack 1.80 + Gabon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gabon attack 1.60 + Guinea-Bissau defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guinea-Bissau scores more
42%
level
24%
Gabon scores more
34%

Guinea-Bissau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guinea-Bissau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guinea-Bissau vs Gabon

Gabon beat Guinea-Bissau 3-1 in Friendlies on November 17, 2022.

The match was played at Atilla Vehbi Konuk Tesisleri in Döşemealtı.